“We trade certainty in a world of probability.
Finally, a system that wins when the world changes.”
Strategic Thesis
WHY POLYTIER
UNCORRELATED RETURNS
Independent of traditional equity markets — we execute based on real-world events, not stock sentiment.
QUANTIFIABLE EDGE
Every position is the output of a mathematical model. No guessing, no sentiment. Deflated Sharpe 1.0, PBO 0.00%.
NON-CUSTODIAL
Your vault, your keys. Polytier never holds your funds. Revoke bot access at any time.
How We Share Returns
FUND ECONOMICS
LPs receive a 15% annual preferred return first. We participate in profits only above this threshold.
High-watermark protection. All losses recovered before any performance share is taken.
Each LP deploys their own EIP-1271 vault on Polygon. Polytier never holds your funds.
Minimum $50,000 · Qualified Purchasers Only · Polygon Network · EIP-1271 Non-Custodial Vaults
ORACLE
Z-SCORE
“The Market Hasn't Caught Up.”
Every 5 minutes, Polymarket opens a new “BTC Up or Down” market. Market makers keep prices near $0.50 even when Bitcoin has already moved on Binance.
We measure the lag. We compute the z-score of the BTC/ETH price move against realized volatility. When the oracle probability diverges from the market price by more than our edge threshold, we buy.
SHARP
CONSENSUS
“Follow the Specialists.”
A small group of wallets on Polymarket consistently trade ahead of public information. They know sports, crypto, politics — and they profit.
We identify and follow them. We profile 90 days of wallet trading history, score specialists by category using adaptive regime weights, and enter markets where 3+ specialists agree — sizing via Empirical Kelly.
TEMPEST
EMOS
“Better Weather Models.”
Polymarket weather markets are priced off public forecasts. Public forecasts are systematically miscalibrated.
We calibrate better. We post-process GFS + ECMWF ensemble forecasts using Ensemble Model Output Statistics (EMOS) regression — a non-homogeneous Gaussian model that produces sharper probabilities than the market prices.
The Architects
FOUNDING
TEAM
Built Polytier from the ground up — from quant research to live execution infrastructure. Responsible for strategy architecture, system design, and fund operations.
With a decade in quantitative finance with firms like Linear Alpha, FBS GP and roles at several Family Offices, Marcel leads our STEM expert network responsible for model design, development, validation and implementation.
With over three decades in investments and portfolio management, holding roles at Old Mutual and StratBench, Wayne focuses on technology-driven, risk-controlled arbitrage strategies and is at the heart of trade management.
Quantitative Researcher with expertise in model design and validation. Holds a degree in Mathematics from Durham University. His work focuses on mathematical rigor and performance of the fund's analytical frameworks.
30 years in the financial sector including with a $15bn fund of hedge funds, OTC product development at CMC Markets and running marketing at Carne, the leading third-party management company in Europe, used by BlackRock and GLG.
Participate in the edge
MARKETS
MISPRIZE.
WE DON'T.
Algorithmic strategies on Polymarket. Non-custodial vaults — your funds, your keys. Performance fees only above a 15% annual hurdle.
Read the manifesto →Get In Touch
INSTITUTIONAL
INQUIRY
Shadow validation is active. Submit your inquiry for access to our institutional brief and a direct introduction call.
A specialized non-custodial prediction market fund that runs quantitative strategies on on-chain markets. The fund does not custody capital—assets stay in vaults you control.
© 2026 Polytier. All rights reserved.
AIFM & MIFID 2 Compliant · Qualified Purchasers Only